GrippeFranceV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000154

Quantifying the role of weather on seasonal influenza.

Identifieur interne : 000154 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000153; suivant : 000155

Quantifying the role of weather on seasonal influenza.

Auteurs : Marion Roussel [France] ; Dominique Pontier [France] ; Jean-Marie Cohen [France] ; Bruno Lina [France] ; David Fouchet [France]

Source :

BMC public health [ 1471-2458 ] ; 2016.

RBID : pubmed:27230111

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- France (épidémiologie), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (virologie), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains (MeSH), Incidence (MeSH), Modèles théoriques (MeSH), Saisons (MeSH), Temps (météorologie) (MeSH), Épidémies de maladies (MeSH).
MESH :
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : France, Grippe humaine.
- Humains, Incidence, Modèles théoriques, Saisons, Temps (météorologie), Épidémies de maladies.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Disease Outbreaks (MeSH), France (epidemiology), Humans (MeSH), Incidence (MeSH), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (transmission), Influenza, Human (virology), Models, Theoretical (MeSH), Seasons (MeSH), Weather (MeSH).
MESH :
- epidemiology : France, Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Incidence, Models, Theoretical, Seasons, Weather.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Improving knowledge about influenza transmission is crucial to upgrade surveillance network and to develop accurate predicting models to enhance public health intervention strategies. Epidemics usually occur in winter in temperate countries and during the rainy season for tropical countries, suggesting a climate impact on influenza spread. Despite a lot of studies, the role of weather on influenza spread is not yet fully understood. In the present study, we investigated this issue at two different levels.

METHODS

First, we evaluated how weekly (intra-annual) incidence variations of clinical diseases could be linked to those of climatic factors. We considered that only a fraction of the human population is susceptible at the beginning of a year due to immunity acquired from previous years. Second, we focused on epidemic sizes (cumulated number of clinical reported cases) and looked at how their inter-annual and regional variations could be related to differences in the winter climatic conditions of the epidemic years over the regions. We quantified the impact of fifteen climatic variables in France using the Réseau des GROG surveillance network incidence data over eleven regions and nine years.

RESULTS

At the epidemic scale, no impact of climatic factors was highlighted. At the intra-annual scale, six climatic variables had a significant impact: average temperature (5.54 ± 1.09 %), absolute humidity (5.94 ± 1.08 %), daily variation of absolute humidity (3.02 ± 1.17 %), sunshine duration (3.46 ± 1.06 %), relative humidity (4.92 ± 1.20 %) and daily variation of relative humidity (4.46 ± 1.24 %). Since in practice the impact of two highly correlated variables is very hard to disentangle, we performed a principal component analysis that revealed two groups of three highly correlated climatic variables: one including the first three highlighted climatic variables on the one hand, the other including the last three ones on the other hand.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that, among the six factors that appeared to be significant, only two (one per group) could in fact have a real effect on influenza spread, although it is not possible to determine which one based on a purely statistical argument. Our results support the idea of an important role of climate on the spread of influenza.

DOI: 10.1186/s12889-016-3114-x
PubMed: 27230111
PubMed Central: PMC4881007

Affiliations:

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

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Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b>
</p>
<p>Improving knowledge about influenza transmission is crucial to upgrade surveillance network and to develop accurate predicting models to enhance public health intervention strategies. Epidemics usually occur in winter in temperate countries and during the rainy season for tropical countries, suggesting a climate impact on influenza spread. Despite a lot of studies, the role of weather on influenza spread is not yet fully understood. In the present study, we investigated this issue at two different levels.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b>
</p>
<p>First, we evaluated how weekly (intra-annual) incidence variations of clinical diseases could be linked to those of climatic factors. We considered that only a fraction of the human population is susceptible at the beginning of a year due to immunity acquired from previous years. Second, we focused on epidemic sizes (cumulated number of clinical reported cases) and looked at how their inter-annual and regional variations could be related to differences in the winter climatic conditions of the epidemic years over the regions. We quantified the impact of fifteen climatic variables in France using the Réseau des GROG surveillance network incidence data over eleven regions and nine years.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b>
</p>
<p>At the epidemic scale, no impact of climatic factors was highlighted. At the intra-annual scale, six climatic variables had a significant impact: average temperature (5.54 ± 1.09 %), absolute humidity (5.94 ± 1.08 %), daily variation of absolute humidity (3.02 ± 1.17 %), sunshine duration (3.46 ± 1.06 %), relative humidity (4.92 ± 1.20 %) and daily variation of relative humidity (4.46 ± 1.24 %). Since in practice the impact of two highly correlated variables is very hard to disentangle, we performed a principal component analysis that revealed two groups of three highly correlated climatic variables: one including the first three highlighted climatic variables on the one hand, the other including the last three ones on the other hand.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>
</p>
<p>These results suggest that, among the six factors that appeared to be significant, only two (one per group) could in fact have a real effect on influenza spread, although it is not possible to determine which one based on a purely statistical argument. Our results support the idea of an important role of climate on the spread of influenza.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
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<Month>08</Month>
<Day>30</Day>
</DateCompleted>
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<Month>12</Month>
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<PubDate><Year>2016</Year>
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<Title>BMC public health</Title>
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<ArticleTitle>Quantifying the role of weather on seasonal influenza.</ArticleTitle>
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<Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND">Improving knowledge about influenza transmission is crucial to upgrade surveillance network and to develop accurate predicting models to enhance public health intervention strategies. Epidemics usually occur in winter in temperate countries and during the rainy season for tropical countries, suggesting a climate impact on influenza spread. Despite a lot of studies, the role of weather on influenza spread is not yet fully understood. In the present study, we investigated this issue at two different levels.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="METHODS">First, we evaluated how weekly (intra-annual) incidence variations of clinical diseases could be linked to those of climatic factors. We considered that only a fraction of the human population is susceptible at the beginning of a year due to immunity acquired from previous years. Second, we focused on epidemic sizes (cumulated number of clinical reported cases) and looked at how their inter-annual and regional variations could be related to differences in the winter climatic conditions of the epidemic years over the regions. We quantified the impact of fifteen climatic variables in France using the Réseau des GROG surveillance network incidence data over eleven regions and nine years.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="RESULTS">At the epidemic scale, no impact of climatic factors was highlighted. At the intra-annual scale, six climatic variables had a significant impact: average temperature (5.54 ± 1.09 %), absolute humidity (5.94 ± 1.08 %), daily variation of absolute humidity (3.02 ± 1.17 %), sunshine duration (3.46 ± 1.06 %), relative humidity (4.92 ± 1.20 %) and daily variation of relative humidity (4.46 ± 1.24 %). Since in practice the impact of two highly correlated variables is very hard to disentangle, we performed a principal component analysis that revealed two groups of three highly correlated climatic variables: one including the first three highlighted climatic variables on the one hand, the other including the last three ones on the other hand.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS">These results suggest that, among the six factors that appeared to be significant, only two (one per group) could in fact have a real effect on influenza spread, although it is not possible to determine which one based on a purely statistical argument. Our results support the idea of an important role of climate on the spread of influenza.</AbstractText>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Roussel</LastName>
<ForeName>Marion</ForeName>
<Initials>M</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR 5558, Biometry and Evolutionary Biology laboratory, Bât. Grégor Mendel 43 bd du 11 novembre 1918, Villeurbanne Cedex, F-69622, France. marion.roussel1@gmail.com.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>LabEx ECOFECT, Eco-evolutionary Dynamics of infectious Diseases, University of Lyon, Lyon, France. marion.roussel1@gmail.com.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pontier</LastName>
<ForeName>Dominique</ForeName>
<Initials>D</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR 5558, Biometry and Evolutionary Biology laboratory, Bât. Grégor Mendel 43 bd du 11 novembre 1918, Villeurbanne Cedex, F-69622, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>LabEx ECOFECT, Eco-evolutionary Dynamics of infectious Diseases, University of Lyon, Lyon, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cohen</LastName>
<ForeName>Jean-Marie</ForeName>
<Initials>JM</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>OPEN ROME, Paris, France.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lina</LastName>
<ForeName>Bruno</ForeName>
<Initials>B</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory of Virology, Centre National de Référence des Virus Influenzae, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France.</Affiliation>
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	Serveur d'exploration sur la grippe en France
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Quantifying the role of weather on seasonal influenza.

Quantifying the role of weather on seasonal influenza.

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